Fig. 3

Event rate of first MACE by 2 years* by baseline eGFR and UACR values. *The event rate is defined as the probability (number of individuals per 100 individuals) to experience a first MACE within 2 years. A quadratic spline regression, using the Cox proportional hazard model, on predicted event rate of MACE by 2 years was calculated in per treatment arm across (A) eGFR and (B) UACR values, as well as in pooled treatment arms across the continuum of (C) eGFR and (D) UACR values. Data are presented as medians (solid lines); vertical black dashed lines represent percentile, quartile and median values. In panels A and B, blue and grey dashed lines represent 95% CIs for semaglutide and placebo, respectively. Baseline UACR values are transformed to the natural logarithmic (Ln) values. The number of events in defined intervals for each kidney parameter continuum are presented within the vertical black dashed lines defining the interval (two events occurred in participants without available UACR data at baseline). AIC, Akaike information criterion; CI, confidence interval; C-index, concordance index; CKD-EPI, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; E, number of events; M, median; MACE, major adverse cardiovascular event; P, percentile; Q, quartile; UACR, urine albumin:creatinine ratio